Understanding the Markets

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Updated for 2020:
Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets

Thintri, Inc. announces the release of Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets, a new market study that explores the current state of millimeter wave technology and market opportunities for systems operating in the millimeter wave range. This in-depth investigation, the third update to Thintri’s original 2010 study, discusses millimeter wave technologies already creating significant markets, emerging market opportunities, and overall market development. The report surveys today’s technologies and applications, separates hype from reality and assesses applications where millimeter wave technology will open up significant new markets, with market forecasts going out to 2025.

Millimeter Wave Systems Overview

• Technology Background
• Technical Issues (GaAs vs. SiGe/CMOS, packaging, components, etc.) 
• Public Policy, Regulation, Licensing
• Standards (WiGig, Wireless HD, etc.)
• Established Markets

Prime Applications

• Imaging
• Telecommunications
• Consumer Products
• Defense & Security

Imaging

• Active vs. Passive Systems
• Markets in Checkpoint Security – Airports, concerts, sports events, etc.
• Markets in Loss Prevention/Inventory Control
• Markets in Through-Wall Imaging
• Markets in Consumer Retail/Clothing Sales
• Issues of Privacy and Public Perception
• Competition Technologies

Telecommunications

• Established Lower-Frequency Applications
• Applications for Millimeter Waves (Enterprise, Backhaul, P2P, etc.)
• Licensed vs. Lightly Licensed vs. Unlicensed
• Performance and Availability
• 23 to 39 GHz Bands
• 60 GHz Band Markets

Consumer Markets

• 60 GHz: Consumer, Home Media Markets
  • Data Compression
  • Hardware Considerations
  • Market Growth
• Automotive Radar
  • 24 GHz vs. 77 GHz
  • Market Growth: Trucks, Automobiles

Defense & Security Radar Markets

• Smart Munitions
• Perimeter & Surveillance Radar, Intrusion Detection
  • Defense vs. Private Sector
  • Range Considerations, Long Range vs. Short Range  
• Marine Radar
• Defense & Intelligence Communications

Other Millimeter Wave Markets

• Commercial Ka-Band Satellite (VSAT) Communications
• Medicine and Health
• Chemical Monitoring
• Construction and Infrastructure 
• Manufacturing

Background on Millimeter Wave Systems and Their Markets

Millimeter wave (MMW) radiation, that portion of the electromagnetic spectrum generally defined as roughly 20 GHz to 300 GHz, has gained commercial traction in the past two decades. Accelerating evolution in technology and changes in the regulatory environment have expanded opportunities in existing millimeter wave applications and opened new, potentially significant markets.

MMW imaging is established in airport security and markets are rapidly growing in loss prevention, where systems can quickly scan employees leaving a manufacturing facility to prevent theft. New technology will soon dramatically reduce the cost of such imaging systems, allowing their adoption in a much broader range of venues such as courthouses, concerts, stadiums, schools, dance clubs and many others. 

MMW systems are also transforming telecommunications, offering data rates that can approach those of optical fiber. E-band links are quickly capturing markets in backhaul, where they can be deployed quickly and at a small fraction of the cost of laying optical fiber.  

Millimeter waves may be the only viable solution to the bandwidth challenges facing today’s telecom industry as it transitions to next-generation 5G networks. Some 4G networks are already approaching the theoretical limit on how much data can be squeezed into a given band. The Internet of Things is bringing tens of billions of devices, including tracking tags, body sensors, vehicles, clothing and a broad range of appliances, sensors and other technologies, all connected to mobile networks. Wireless data transfer volumes will be thousands of times greater than they are today, with demand for data transfer rates at 10 to 100 times faster than has been practical recently.

One of the most exciting frontiers in telecommunications is fixed wireless Internet access, where MMW systems are about to facilitate a game-changing market shift. As small, highly flexible startups move to offer MMW-based wireless Internet access across broad geographic regions, the walls that once served to separate the various access suppliers are breaking down. The result is a Wild West scenario where a large number of players, large and small, compete to offer consumers and businesses up to gigabit data rates at low cost.

Likewise, satellite Internet access, serving rural users and ships at sea, is creating billion-dollar markets for millimeter wave equipment.

Automotive radar is another burgeoning market. Eventually, as collision avoidance systems in cars and trucks becomes standard and even mandated in some places, the advantages of millimeter waves in achieving low cost radar systems with high resolution will lead to billion-dollar revenue streams.
 
The unique properties of millimeter waves lend them to a host of other markets as well, including manufacturing process and quality control, medical diagnosis, munitions guidance, security perimeter radar, and monitoring of chemical processing and pipelines.

Understand the Markets

The outlook for millimeter wave technology is extraordinarily promising. Steady reductions in hardware cost and progress in system development are dovetailing with growing demand in a number of markets and, in some cases, greatly relaxed regulation, all leading to growth in widely diverse markets. Depending on the market, that growth is already well underway, is starting now, or will start soon. Most importantly, some of the most significant markets, including security and telecommunications, are not only potentially quite large but relatively immune to economic conditions. Developers in other applications are making use of new technologies to bring millimeter wave systems within striking distance of mass markets.  

Some emerging markets require little more than education of users in the capability of millimeter wave systems while in others, that case has already been made and equipment sales are growing rapidly. In most areas, technologies have matured to the extent that scientific understanding is not an issue; instead, the principal requirement is bringing prices in line with market demand. 

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Report Table of Contents:

Part 1: Overview     1

E.1    Introduction   1
E.1    Established Millimeter Wave Markets 1
E.2    Technology & Hardware     2
E.3    Regulation and Public Policy    3
E.4    Imaging   3
E.5    Telecommunications    5
E.6    Consumer Markets   6
E.7    Defense and Security Radar   7
E.8    Other Millimeter Wave Markets    7
        E.8.1    VSATs       8
        E.8.2     Medicine and Health      9
        E.8.3    Chemical Monitoring      9
        E.8.4    Construction and Infrastructure       10
        E.8.5    Manufacturing     10

Part 1: Overview    11

1.1    Introduction     10
         Figure 1-1    Primary US Microwave and Millimeter Wave Band Allocations     11
1.2    History             14
         Figure 1-2    Prof. J.C. Bose with his millimeter wave equipment, 1897  15
1.3    Technology Basics       16
         Figure 1-3    Propagation of Millimeter Waves     17
         Figure 1-4    Absorption of Millimeter Waves by Atmospheric Oxygen & Water Vapor       19
         Figure 1-5    Overall Atmospheric Absorption Mechanisms of Electromagnetic Radiation     20

Part 2: Technology and Hardware    22

2.1    Semiconductors and Packaging    22
        2.1.1    Material Systems: GaAs, GaN, SiGe and CMOS     22
        2.1.2    Packaging: MCM vs. SMT   29
        2.1.3    Devices, Circuits & Components       29
        2.1.4    RF-MEMS Switches        30
2.2    Transmission Lines    31
2.3    Antennas       32
2.4    Transceivers & Receivers       33
2.5    Systems      34
2.6    Modulation      34
        2.6.1    Amplitude Shift Keying       35
        2.6.2    Frequency Shift Keying         36
        2.6.3    Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing   36

Part 3: Technical and Safety Issues     38

3.1    Technical Issues      38
3.2    Safety     41

Part 4: Public Policy, Regulation, and Standards     44

4.1    Background: Growth of the Current Regulatory Climate      44
4.2    Recent FCC Rule Changes    45
4.3    E-band Regulation     47
4.4    The Effect of Local Government    49
4.5    Standards    50
        4.5.1    Low Frequency Options       50
        4.5.2    Higher Frequency Standards   53
        4.5.3    Summary       59

Part 5: Application Summary     60

5.1   Introduction – Why Millimeter Waves?   60
5.2   Today’s Marketplace   61
        5.2.1   Telecommunications   61
        5.2.2   Radar   63
        5.2.3   Imaging   64

Part 6: Imaging     65

6.1   Introduction   65
6.2   Imaging Technology   66
        Figure 6-1    Scissors Imaged Through a Closed Container    67
        Figure 6-2    Cookies Imaged Through a Closed Container   67
6.3   Imaging Applications   69
        6.3.1   Checkpoint Security: Airports & Other Public Venues    69
Figure 6-3    Hidden Ceramic Knife   73
        6.3.2   Inventory Control, Theft Prevention   75
6.3.3   Through-Wall Imaging    76
6.4   Active vs. Passive Systems    79
        6.4.1   Technical Comparison   79
        6.4.2   Application/Market Comparison    84
        Figure 6-4    Checkpoint Security Imaging Market, Active vs. Passive System Share    86
6.5   Issues of Acceptance: Privacy and Public Perception   86
        Figure 6-5    Active millimeter wave images    87
        Figure 6-6    TSA Chart on Millimeter Wave Scanners   89
6.6   The Competition: Backscatter X-Ray    90
6.7   Millimeter Wave Imaging Markets    92
        6.7.1   Market Development    93
        6.7.2   Checkpoint Security Imaging Markets    95
        Figure 6-7    Millimeter Wave Imaging Systems Sales in Checkpoint Security, Unit Sales   98
        Figure 6-8    Millimeter Wave Imaging Systems Sales in Checkpoint Security, Market Volume           98
        6.7.3   Inventory Control and Loss Prevention Imaging Markets    99
        Figure 6-9    Imaging Systems Sales, Loss Prevention, Unit Sales    100
        Figure 6-10   Imaging Systems Sales, Loss Prevention, Market Volume    100
        6.7.4   Through-Wall Imaging Markets    100
        Figure 6-11   Millimeter Wave Through-Wall Imaging Systems, Market Volume    101
        6.7.5   Consumer Retail Imaging Markets    101
        Figure 6-12   Imaging Systems Sales in Consumer Retail, Market Volume    101
        6.7.6   Handheld Systems    102
        Figure 6-13   Handheld MMW Imaging System Sales, Unit Sales    103
        Figure 6-14   Handheld MMW Imaging System Sales, Market Volume    103
        6.7.7   Summary: Imaging Market Growth    103

Part 7: Telecommunications    86

7.1   Introduction    105
        7.1.1   Conventional Microwave Links    107
        Figure 7-1    Conventional Microwave Links, Market Volumes    108
        Figure 7-2    Conventional Microwave Links, Unit Sales    108
        Figure 7-3    Conventional Microwave Links, Hardware Sales by Componen    109
        Figure 7-4    Relative Share of Mobile vs. Enterprise Networks, 6 - 38 GHz, 2016    109
        7.1.2   The advent of Millimeter Wave Systems in Telecommunications    109
7.2   5G: Backhaul and the Small Cell Model    115
7.3   Licensed vs. Lightly Licensed vs. Unlicensed    119
7.4   The 23, 24, 26 and 39 GHz Bands    121
        7.4.1   23 and 26 GHz Bands    122
        7.4.2   24 and 39 GHz Bands    122
7.5   60 GHz    123
        7.5.1   60 GHz Telecommunications Applications    125
        7.5.2   Short Range: WiGig and WirelessHD    126
        7.5.3   Benefits of 60 GHz Technology    129
7.6   The E-band    130
         7.6.1   Background     130
        7.6.2   Propagation Characteristics    132
        7.6.3   Performance, Reliability and Availability    133
        Table 7-1      Five Nines Link Range and Availability for Several Cities    134
        7.6.4   Applications & Users    136
        Table 7-2      Frequency vs. Beamwidth at 1 km using a 1 foot diameter antenna    137
        Figure 7-5    Beamwidth comparisons for wireless backhaul solutions    139
        7.6.5   E-band Licensing    143
7.7   The Competitive Technology Landscape    144
        Figure 7-6    Telecommunications Backhaul: Shares by Technology    145
7.8   The Millimeter Wave Telecom Market    146
        7.8.1   Past Market Growth    146
        7.8.2   The Shift to backhaul    147
        7.8.3   WISPs: Fixed Wireless Internet Access    148
        7.8.4   Present and Future Market Growth    157
        Figure 7-7    Markets, Millimeter Wave Telecommunications Links, 20 to 38 GHz    158
        Figure 7-8    Markets, 20 to 38 GHz, by Component    158
        Figure 7-9    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, 60 GHz    160
        Figure 7-10   Telecom Systems Markets by Component, 60 GHz    . 160
        Figure 7-11   Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, 60 GHz, Unit Sales    161
        Figure 7-12   Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, E-band    161
        Figure 7-13   Telecom Systems Markets by Component, E-band    162
        Figure 7-14   Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, E-band, Unit Sales    162
        Figure 7-15   Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, 60 GHz, by Application    163
        Figure 7-16   Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, E-band, by Application    163
        Figure 7-17   E-band Enterprise Markets, Government/Municipalities, General Business 164
        Figure 7-18   E-band Enterprise Markets, Healthcare, Education, Misc    164

Part 8: Consumer & Automotive    165

8.1   Introduction    165
8.2   60 GHz Systems: Consumer & Home Media    166
        8.2.1   Background: 60 GHz in Multimedia    166
        8.2.2   Data Compression    168
        8.2.3   Hardware Considerations    169
        8.2.4   60 GHz Consumer Media and Other Markets    170
        Figure 8-1    Markets for 60 GHz Consumer Multimedia Products    173
        Figure 8-2    Markets for 60 GHz Consumer Multimedia Products, Unit Sales    173
8.3   Automotive Millimeter Wave Radar    173
        8.3.1   Background: Millimeter Wave Radar    173
        8.3.2   MMW Radar Applied to Transportation    175
        8.3.3   History_    178
        Figure 8-3    The 1959 Cadillac Cyclone with Radar    179
        8.3.4   MMW Radar Technology    181
        8.3.5   24 GHz vs. 60 GHz vs. 77 GHz vs. 79 GHz    184
        Table 8.1      Assigned Tasks by Band    187
        Figure 8-4    Market Share, Auto Radar, 24 GHz vs. 77 GHz, Automobiles    188
        Figure 8-5    Market Share, Auto Radar, 24 GHz vs. 77 GHz, Trucks    189
        8.3.6   Infrastructure and Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications    190
        8.3.7 The Competition    191
        8.3.8   Automotive Radar Markets    192
        Figure 8-6    Worldwide Unit Sales, Cars and Trucks    194
        Figure 8-7    Unit Sales, Radar Systems, Trucks and Automobiles    195
        Figure 8-8    Markets for Automotive Radar, 24 GHz and 77 GHz    195

Part 9: Millimeter Wave Defense & Security Markets    197

9.1   Background    197
9.2   Millimeter Wave Radar for Security and Intrusion Detection    198
        9.2.1   Perimeter and Surveillance Radar    199
        9.2.2   Range Considerations    202
        9.2.3   Technical Considerations    202
9.3   Munitions Applications    203
9.4   Marine Radar    204
9.5   Defense and Intelligence Communications    205
9.6   Active Denial Systems and Non-Lethal Weapons    206
9.7   Defense & Security System Markets    207
        Figure 9-1    Surveillance/Perimeter Radar, Defense vs. Non-Defense, 2016    208
        Figure 9-2    Millimeter Wave Surveillance/Perimeter Radar Markets    208
        Figure 9-3    Millimeter Wave Munitions Radar Markets    209
        Figure 9-4    Marine Radar Millimeter Wave Markets    210
        Figure 9-5    Defense & Intelligence Millimeter Wave Communications Markets    210
        Figure 9-6    Overall Defense & Security Markets    211

Part 10: Other Millimeter Wave Markets    212

10.1 Commercial Ka-band Satellite Communications    212
        Figure 10-1   Unit Sales, VSAT Terminals    217
10.2 Medicine and Health    218
        Figure 10-2   Millimeter Wave Markets in Medicine, Health and Safety    221
10.3 Chemical Monitoring    221
        Figure 10-3   Markets for Millimeter Wave Systems in Chemical Monitoring    222
10.4 Construction & Infrastructure    222
        Figure 10-4   Millimeter Wave Systems Markets in Construction and Infrastructure    223
10.5 Manufacturing    224
        Figure 10-5   Millimeter Wave Markets in Manufacturing    225

Part 11: Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets     189

11.1 Introduction    226
11.2 The Evolving Semiconductor Landscape    226
        Figure 11-1   Overall MMICs by Application, All Frequencies, 2020    231
        Figure 11-2   MMIC Sales by Application, Millimeter Wave Only, 2025    232
11.3 Consumer Applications    232
        Figure 11-3   Semiconductor Markets in Car Radar, Multimedia    232
11.4 Imaging    233
        Figure 11-4   Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets, Active Imaging Systems    234
        Figure 11-5   Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets, Passive Imaging Systems    234
11.5 Defense and Security    234
        Figure 11-6   Defense & Security Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets    235
11.6 Telecommunications    235
        Figure 11-7   Telecommunications Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets    236
11.7 Other Millimeter Wave Applications    237
        Figure 11-8   Semiconductor Markets in Other Millimeter Wave Applications    237

Order today
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$4,800